Undergraduate

Applications of probability

On this page

• What you will study
• Entry
• If you have a disability or additional requirement
• Study materials
• Teaching and assessment
• Professional recognition
• Students also studied
• Future availability

This course introduces models to describe patterns of events that occur in time (such as earthquakes), and in space (for instance, the occurrence of a species of plant). Situations that occur only at discrete time points, including the ruin of a gambler, are studied. Probability models are developed for those situations, such as the spread of an epidemic, in which events may occur at any time. The course ends with other situations involving probability including genetics and changes in stockmarket prices. You are expected to be reasonably competent in calculus and algebra.

Course facts

Register for the course

This course is available for study in the countries shown. Fees and financial support may vary by country.

What you will study

This course in probability and its applications emphasises probability modelling and developing the properties of the models. A considerable amount of mathematics is sometimes required for this development, but we do not always give formal proofs, particularly if the proof does not illuminate the probabilistic ideas.

The course consists of six books and the first two are introductory. 

The first one revises and develops ideas about probability and introduces some techniques that will be used frequently in the course. 

The second book develops models for events occurring in time, including the Poisson process and several extensions of it, patterns in space including models for random scatter and clustering of objects.

The third book develops models for processes in which events can occur only at discrete time points, such as a Bernoulli process. This includes practical situations such as the ruin of a gambler and the extinction of a family surname.

In the fourth book, probability models are developed for situations in which events can occur at any time. Examples include queues, the spread of epidemics, and the change in the size of a population due to births and deaths.

In the last book models are developed for various situations including genetics; the renewal of components; and the change in stock market prices.

Computer simulations are used to illustrate some of the phenomena studied, and associated activites are included in a separate book.

You will learn

Successful study of this module should enhance your skills in understanding mathematical arguments, expressing problems in mathematical language, finding solutions to problems and interpreting mathematical results in real-world terms.

Entry

This is a Level 3 course. Level 3 courses build on study skills and subject knowledge acquired from studies at Levels 1 and 2. They are intended only for students who have recent experience of higher education in a related subject, preferably with the OU. 

You are expected to have a basic knowledge of probability: probability functions for discrete random variables and probability density functions for continuous random variables; the binomial, Poisson, geometric, exponential and normal distributions; the Poisson process. You are also expected to have a reasonable degree of mathematical competence. Although any special techniques you need are taught in the course, it would be helpful if you had met differential equations and matrices.

You could get the necessary knowledge from Analysing data (M248). Another Open University Level 2 mathematical course, Mathematical methods and models (MST209) is also relevant. We have tried to allow for the likelihood that not everyone will have taken those courses, and a revision of fundamental notions of probability and probability models and of some basic mathematical techniques is included in the first book. Close study of that, as early as you can, would be good preparation for the rest of the course. However, we do advise students they are more likely to complete this course successfully if they have acquired their prerequisite knowledge through passing one of the courses mentioned above.

You can get an idea of the level of mathematical competence required by looking at texts from MST209, which gives a useful introduction to techniques. Your regional or national centre will be able to tell you where you can see reference copies, or you can buy selected materials from Open University Worldwide Ltd (see the Open University Worldwide website for details). A diagnostic quiz that will enable you to determine whether you are adequately prepared for M343 can be found on the StatsChoices website where you can also find out more about the statistics courses available to you.

If you have any doubt about the suitability of the course, please contact our Student Registration & Enquiry Service.

If you have a disability or additional requirement

This course may be very challenging if you have severely impaired sight. Almost all the texts contain detailed diagrams and there are a few data tables. Adobe Portable Document Format (PDF) versions of printed material are available. Some Adobe PDF components (such as equations) may not be available or fully accessible using a screen reader and mathematical materials may be particularly difficult to read in this way. Our Services for disabled students website has the latest information about availability.

If you are a new student, or new to courses using a computer or the internet, you will need to inform us of your particular needs as soon as possible, as some of our support services may take several weeks to arrange. Details of how to do this and our range of support services are described in our publication Meeting Your Needs.

You can also find information about accessible study materials, financial support and the Disabled Students' Allowance, equipment and other services, on our Services for disabled students website. It also includes our contact details for advice and support both before you register and while you are studying.

Study materials

What's included

Books, web-based software, website.

You will need

Calculator with the usual mathematical functions (exp, log, sin, cos), but not necessarily with statistical functions.

Computing requirements

This course includes online computer activities – you can access these using a web browser that can play Flash and Shockwave.

You will need internet access and a computer. If you have purchased a new computer since 2005 it should meet your course computing requirements. Check our Technical Requirements section if your computer is older than this or is otherwise unusual.

Teaching and assessment

Support from your tutor

You will have a tutor who will help you with the study material and mark and comment on your written work, and whom you can ask for advice and guidance. We may also be able to offer group tutorials or day schools that you are encouraged, but not obliged, to attend. Where your tutorials are held will depend on the distribution of students taking the course. Contact our Student Registration & Enquiry Service if you want to know more about study with The Open University before you register.

Assessment

The assessment details for this course can be found in the facts box above.

Please note that TMAs for all undergraduate mathematics and statistics courses must be submitted on paper as – due to technical reasons – we are unable to accept TMAs via our eTMA system.

Assessment is an essential part of the teaching, so you are expected to complete it all. You will be given more detailed information when you begin the course.

Professional recognition

This course may help you to gain recognition from a professional body. You can view or download our Recognition leaflets 3.6 Institute of Mathematics and its Application and 3.11 Other organisations for further information.

Students also studied

Students who studied this course also studied at some time:

• Practical modern statistics (M249)
• Linear statistical modelling (M346)
• Analysing data (M248)
• Graphs, networks and design (MT365)
• Mathematical methods and models (MST209)

Future availability

The details given here are for the course that starts in October 2012. We expect it to be available once a year.

Fees 2012

See fees and funding options for study from September 2012.

Study explained

Financial support

- find out if you qualify for support with your fees with our eligibility checker.

Study explained

- all you need to know about distance learning with the OU.

Student Reviews

Brilliant course! The teaching material was excellent, the feedback from the tutor prompt and comprehensive and the subject material really ...
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Unfortunately one of the worst written stats courses provided by the OU. There are face to face tutorials provided but ...
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M343 has been completely rewritten and updated for February 2012. Also, as is evident from the other reviews, this is ...
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Course satisfaction survey

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Your questions

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Or contact an adviser in our Student Registration & Enquiry Service Email or call +44(0) 845 300 60 90+44(0) 845 366 60 35

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